Ernst Blofeld

The real insight into Ernst Blofeld's preferences lies in ground conditions. On wet or muddy ground, he has won two of his three races—a win rate of 67 per cent that is remarkable and tells you everything about what this horse needs to show his best form. Fast, dry conditions are far less kind to him, which narrows his racing opportunities in summer but makes him a potential player on softer tracks come autumn and winter. He typically races over distances between one mile and one furlong and one mile and two furlongs, though his record at those trips is mixed: one win from four races shows he is still learning how to make the most of that range.

His recent form has been erratic. He finished third just yesterday, then second before that, but earlier in his last six races he posted two fifth-place finishes and a seventh. This inconsistency is the puzzle. When he has conditions to suit—wet ground, Kempton, the right company—he can win. When he doesn't, he struggles to get competitive. At the higher level, in Class 2 races, he has failed to win from three attempts, suggesting he may have found his ceiling. But as long as his trainer keeps him on soft ground and back at his favoured track, there should be more wins in him yet.