Epictetus

The six-year-old has raced 34 times in his career, winning 3 and placing 13 times — that's a win rate of around 1 in every 11 races, which on the surface looks modest. But zoom in on where those wins came and the picture changes completely. Two of his three victories have been in Class 1 races, the very top tier of British racing. He won at Epsom in April 2023, then followed it up at Goodwood in August the same year. These are not soft targets — they are the kinds of races most horses never get near. Winning them is a genuine achievement, and it tells you that on his day, Epictetus is a high-class horse.

What brings out the best in him is wet or muddy ground. In six races on soft or heavy ground he has won twice — that's a win rate of 33%, or 1 in 3, which is remarkably high. When conditions are testing, he becomes a different animal. His ideal distance also sharpens things: over seven furlongs to a mile he has won 1 from 3, again a 33% conversion rate. The trainer is Jamie Osborne, based at Upper Lambourn in Berkshire — a yard that has sent out 48 winners this season, so the operation behind this horse clearly knows what it's doing.

The current picture is more complicated. He hasn't won in his last six races, and his most recent run — just yesterday — produced a second place, which suggests the spark is still there even if the wins aren't coming. His most frequent partner in the saddle is Saffie Osborne, who has ridden him in nine of those races without a win together, though the pairing keeps being tried. That last victory at Goodwood was 36 months ago now, which is a long drought for a horse who has shown he can beat the best.

Recent form reads 2-5-17-3-3-2, which means a mix of near-misses and one rough afternoon in that 17th-place finish, but also consistent placings. He is clearly still competitive. The question is whether the right day — a wet track, the right distance, the right race — comes together again before his career winds down.