Dream Composer

The overall numbers tell a story of a consistent, high-quality performer. Nine wins and 21 placed efforts from 53 races works out at wins in roughly 1 in every 6 outings — a 17% win rate — but that figure undersells the horse slightly, because it spends almost all its time competing against the best. Winning 5 from 30 races at the top two levels of the sport is genuinely hard to do, and most horses never manage it once.

The partnership with jockey Dougie Costello is one of the more eye-catching statistics here. In 22 races together, Costello has ridden Dream Composer to 5 wins — that is almost 1 win in every 4 rides, a 23% win rate that is comfortably better than the horse's overall average. When those two click, things tend to happen.

Ground conditions matter enormously to Dream Composer. On slightly soft ground — when there has been a bit of rain and the surface has some give in it — the horse has won 4 from 10 races. That is a 40% win rate, meaning it wins almost 2 in every 5 races in those conditions. Compare that to its overall record and the message is clear: watch the weather forecast.

The most recent win came at Ripon just four weeks ago, so this is a horse in current form rather than one coasting on past glories. It raced again just yesterday, which speaks to a yard — Tony Carroll's operation in Worcestershire, which has sent out 136 winners already this season — that clearly has the horse in rude health. At eight, Dream Composer has long since proved it belongs at the top level. The question now is simply how many more times it can keep doing it.