Dragon Spin

Those two wins tell an interesting tale on their own. The first came at Nottingham in May, which got things started, but the second — and more recent — came at Thirsk in mid-June, just three weeks ago. Winning at two different tracks suggests this isn't a horse that only works in one very specific set of circumstances. What does seem to matter, though, is the ground. On normal conditions Dragon Spin has won 2 of just 4 races — that's a 50% win rate, which is a genuinely remarkable number in any sport. Compare that with 0 wins from 4 races on other ground types and it becomes clear that conditions make a real difference.

There is one puzzle worth noting. Dragon Spin has raced four times at Class 5 level — essentially the bread-and-butter tier of British racing, the kind of race this horse is expected to be competitive in — and is yet to win at that level. Both victories have come elsewhere. That's not a crisis, but it's a curious quirk that the trainer Steph Hollinshead, based at Upper Longdon in Staffordshire, will be aware of. Hollinshead's yard has already sent out 7 winners this season, so this is a team that knows how to place a horse right and get results.

Jockey Dougie Costello has been the regular partner, riding Dragon Spin in 6 of its 11 races and picking up 1 of those wins — a win rate of about 1 in 6 together. That's a solid working relationship rather than a magical combination, but they clearly know each other by now. With Dragon Spin having raced as recently as yesterday and recent form reading 4-1-6-1-3-2 — two wins and two thirds in the last six — this is a horse in the thick of its season and running consistently. The dip to sixth last time out is the only blip in an otherwise encouraging recent run.