Diamond Ali

There is a glimmer of hope in the data. When Diamond Ali steps up to the middle distances — races of one mile one furlong to one mile two furlongs — he improves noticeably. He has won one of three races over that trip, a win rate of roughly one in three, which is exactly the kind of sign that keeps a trainer and an owner believing. It suggests he may have a sweet spot, and that if the yard can keep him in those kinds of races, he might pick up another win or two.

His recent form, though, is frustrating. His last six runs have brought nothing but distance between him and the winners: tenth, seventh, first, seventh, eighth, seventh. That breakthrough win at Windsor looks increasingly like an exception rather than the start of a winning streak. Dylan Hogan, his regular jockey, has ridden Diamond Ali seven times without a win, which raises the question of whether a change of rider might help unlock something. Julia and Shelley Birkett's Newmarket yard has sent out 15 winners this season, so the stable clearly knows how to get horses to the line — but Diamond Ali is not cooperating yet. He is still active and still racing, which means there is time for that second win to arrive. For now, he remains a work in progress.