Decalogue

The real insight into Decalogue's prospects lies in the distance parameters. Over 1m1f to 1m2f—the middle-distance stretch—the horse has won 1 from 4 races, a conversion rate of 25 per cent. That's markedly better than the overall career win rate of 1 in 8, and it flags Kempton's winning race as potentially more than a one-off. The recent form line reads 1-2-3-4-8, which tells a different story: a win followed by a place in second, then third, then fourth, then a well-beaten eighth. The pattern suggests the horse ran well at two of those distances or conditions but found one outing too sharp. With momentum from this week's victory and a clearer picture of where Decalogue does its best work, there is enough here to build on.