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Danger Alert

There's a horse in the George Baker yard at Epsom Downs that its own trainer admits keeps him up at night — not with worry, but with the nagging feeling that something special is being left on the table. Danger Alert is a six-year-old with 3 wins from 39 races, a win rate of roughly 1 in every 13 outings, and a profile that on paper looks modest. But the numbers don't quite tell the story.Based on TrackLab's AI analysis
Quick Facts
Age
6 years old
Sex
Gelding
Colour
Bay
Father
Ardad
Mother
Sandy Times
Owner
George Baker
Rating
63

📊 Key Numbers

Career statistics for this horse
39
Career races
3
Wins
7.7%
Win rate
avg ~10%
33.3%
Place rate (top 3)
avg ~30%
1 days
Since last race

🔍 Full Analysis

TrackLab's AI-generated assessment based on career data and recent form
TrackLab's Detailed Breakdown
Auto-Generated

The horse is owned by Tim Rodber — the former England rugby international — and his wife, and Baker is candid about the frustration Danger Alert brings with him. At one point this horse was rated in the 90s, a level that puts it well above the everyday races it typically contests. A couple of physical niggles have interrupted its path, and Baker describes it plainly as a horse that is "bubbling under" — meaning the talent is there, it just hasn't found a clean run at showing it consistently. That's not an excuse, it's a pattern, and it matters.

What makes Danger Alert genuinely interesting is the Chester win back in May 2023. Former trainer George Boughey called him "an enigma" after that day, and explained that the horse needs to be delivered late — held up, then pounced. Boughey even noted that a moment of interference that race probably helped, because arriving too early is Danger Alert's own worst enemy. A horse that needs to be outwitted as much as ridden is a rare thing, and it suggests there's more complexity here than the bare form figures suggest. That said, the win is now 37 months ago, and his most trusted jockey Pat Cosgrave has drawn a blank in all 7 of their races together.

Recent form reads 9-4-7-4-3-5 — no wins, but several placed efforts that hint at a horse still competing honestly without quite finding the moment. Baker says there's likely one more run this season, and crucially both trainer and owners are committed to keeping him in training. The yard has sent out 14 winners this season, so Baker knows what a winner looks like — and clearly believes Danger Alert has another one in him. Whether that belief is rewarded is the question that makes this horse worth watching.

Strengths & Risks

What the data says works for and against this horse
✓ What works in their favour
Excellent record on standard ground: 1 wins from 7 starts (14%)
Excellent record on soft ground: 1 wins from 6 starts (17%)
Excellent record on standard_to_slow ground: 1 wins from 5 starts (20%)
⚠ What to watch out for
Poor record on good ground: 0 wins from 8 starts
Poor record on good_to_firm ground: 0 wins from 8 starts
Poor record on good_to_soft ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
Yet to win at Windsor in 5 attempts
Struggles on LH Undulating tracks: 0 wins from 7 starts
Struggles on RH Sharp tracks: 0 wins from 5 starts

🎯 Where This Horse Thrives

Performance broken down by ground, distance, class, and track type
🌧 Ground Conditions
Standard (all-weather)
Loves
Soft (muddy)
Loves
Standard to slow (all-weather)
Loves
Heavy (very wet)
Unknown
Good (firm-ish)
Avoids
Good to firm (drying out)
Avoids
Good to soft (some give)
Avoids
📏 Race Distance
5F – 6½F
7F – 1M
Unknown
🏅 Competition Level
Class 2 (high-level)
Avoids
Class 3 (mid-level)
Loves
Class 4 (standard)
Ok
Class 5 (entry-level)
Ok
🏟 Track Shape
Left-handed, long straights
Loves
Left-handed, tight
Loves
Right-handed, long straights
Long straights
Unknown
Left-handed, hilly
Avoids
Right-handed, tight turns
Avoids
Right-handed, hilly
Avoids
Left-handed, tight turns
Avoids

📅 Recent Runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
23 May
9th
Windsor
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Firm · 16 runners
11 May
4th
Windsor
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Firm · 8 runners
4 Dec
7th
chelmsford
5f – 6½f · Standard · 9 runners
25 Nov
4th
Lingfield Park
5f – 6½f · Standard · 11 runners
20 Oct
3rd
Bath
5f – 6½f · Soft · 9 runners
15 Oct
5th
Kempton Park
5f – 6½f · Standard_To_Slow · 12 runners
30 Sep
11th
Bath
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Firm · 17 runners
17 Sep
2nd
Sandown Park
5f – 6½f · Soft · 9 runners
15 Sep
4th
Brighton
5f – 6½f · Soft · 6 runners
25 Aug
2nd
Epsom Downs
5f – 6½f · Good · 7 runners

🏇 Jockey Partnerships

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, sorted by rides together
0%
Win rate
0/7
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/6
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/5
Won / Rode
50%
Win rate
2/4
Won / Rode
50%
Win rate
1/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
Jack Dace
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
Liam Wright
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode

🏟 Track Record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast visitedWin rate
Kempton Park
Galloping
5 1 win, 4 other 15 Oct 20%
Windsor
Sharp
5 5 other 23 May 0%
Goodwood
Undulating
4 4 other 22 Aug 0%
Wolverhampton
Galloping
3 1 win, 1 second, 1 other 16 Jan 33.3%
Chester
Tight
3 1 win, 1 third, 1 other 12 Jul 33.3%
Lingfield Park
Sharp
3 1 second, 2 other 25 Nov 0%
Sandown Park
Galloping
3 3 seconds 17 Sep 0%
Epsom Downs
Undulating
3 1 second, 2 other 25 Aug 0%
Brighton
Undulating
2 1 second, 1 other 15 Sep 0%
Bath
Undulating
2 1 third, 1 other 20 Oct 0%
Thirsk
Galloping
1 1 other 5 Jul 0%
Haydock Park
Galloping
1 1 other 26 May 0%
Doncaster
Galloping
1 1 second 5 Nov 0%
Newcastle
Galloping
1 1 other 7 Apr 0%
chelmsford 1 1 other 4 Dec 0%
Ascot
Galloping
1 1 other 23 Jun 0%