Criminal

The recent form tells an interesting story if you squint at it the right way. Going back through the last six runs — 2, 3, 3, 7, 9, 11 — you can see a horse that has clearly been struggling lately after a spell of genuine promise. Those back-to-back third places and a runner-up finish earlier in the year looked like a winner was coming. It hasn't arrived yet, and the last three runs have slipped noticeably, finishing seventh, ninth, and eleventh. That kind of downward curve raises questions.

Finley Marsh has been in the saddle for five of those nine races and the pair have yet to find the winner's enclosure together. That's not necessarily a knock on either horse or jockey — partnerships take time to click — but five races without a win is a notable blank. Whether the combination continues is one of the more interesting questions hanging over Criminal's immediate future.

The trainer is Richard Hughes, based at Upper Lambourn, and his yard has been in serious form this season with 66 winners sent out — a strong operation with clear ability to get horses ready to win. That makes Criminal something of an outlier in the stable. A yard firing at that rate can usually find a way to get a willing horse to the front. The fact they haven't managed it with this one yet is part of what makes it intriguing. Criminal has typically been campaigned at Class 4 level — solid, competitive races without being the very top tier — going 0 from 3 at that level, which is where the yard would expect a horse of this type to eventually break through.

At four years old, there is still time. But the clock is ticking, the recent form has dipped, and Criminal remains winless from nine attempts. Horses like this either find their moment — and when they do, the odds are usually generous — or they don't. Right now, that question is very much unanswered.