Counter Intuitive

The recent form tells an interesting story. The first two runs produced an eighth and a sixth — nothing to write home about — but then something clicked. A win at Thirsk in June was followed by another victory at Newmarket just this week, one of the most famous and competitive tracks in the country. Winning at Newmarket means something. It is a long, unforgiving straight that sorts out the horses with real ability from those who just happened to be in the right race. Counter Intuitive handled it. That back-to-back sequence, a 1 and a 1 in the last two runs, suggests a horse that is improving rapidly and has momentum behind it right now.

Behind the horse is trainer Ed Walker, based at Upper Lambourn in Berkshire — one of the most concentrated training centres in Britain, where serious yards and serious horses are the norm. Walker's operation has sent out 76 winners already this season, which tells you this is not a small, quiet setup trying its luck. It is a yard that knows how to place horses in races they can win, and Counter Intuitive looks like a smart fit for the way they work. With only 4 races on the clock and a win rate that most experienced horses never achieve, the really interesting question is not what this horse has done — it is what comes next.