Cordouan

The encouraging detail in Cordouan's record is what happens at the right distance. When stepped up to races between seven furlongs and a mile, the horse shows genuine improvement, winning twice from nine attempts — roughly one in four races. This is the kind of consistency that suggests the trainer and jockey know exactly where this horse performs best. Cian MacRedmond has ridden Cordouan seven times, recording one victory, a 14% win rate that edges above the overall record and suggests there may be a workable partnership there. P Sweeney's yard at Letterkenny, which has sent out six winners this season, appears to have Cordouan well suited to the shorter-distance races that bring out its best.

Recent form offers little cheer. The last six races show a pattern of mid-field finishes and one heavy defeat (the 25th-place run stands out), and there has been no podium finish in the latest two outings. At eight years old, Cordouan is not yet elderly by racing standards, but the combination of age, a long winning drought, and inconsistent recent form suggests this is a horse that may be running out of opportunities to prove it still belongs at this level.