Conyers Hill

His most recent victory came at Down Royal on 21 January, nearly two years ago now, and since then he has been knocking on the door without quite forcing it open. In his last six races he has placed second twice and filled fifth twice, the kind of pattern that would drive any owner quietly mad. Trainer Paul Nolan, based in Enniscorthy, Co. Wexford, knows the problem intimately: Conyers Hill travels beautifully through a race but struggles to find that extra gear when it matters. Nolan has described him as a hold-up horse who does not seem to have much left in the tank when asked, yet even then there is something worth chasing — the horse held on grimly at Down Royal and ran fourth in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham, hardly the form line of a no-hoper.

The one bright spot in Conyers Hill's record is Sean O'Keeffe, the jockey who has ridden him in 14 races and won three times from that partnership — a win rate of 21 per cent, more than double his baseline. Keeffe clearly understands how to get the best from him, and the trainer has been tinkering with tactics, wondering whether to ride him more boldly rather than waiting. It is the kind of marginal tinkering that keeps racing people awake, because with a horse this consistent but this frustrating, sometimes the right setup is just one race away.