Convincing
Convincing is a 5-year-old horse that has struggled to find his rhythm in a 20-race career, winning just once and placing four times. That single victory came at Kilbeggan on 8 August, and it remains his only success in five weeks—a stark reminder that finding the winners' circle is hard, and staying there is harder. With a win rate of roughly 1 in every 20 races, he is not a horse who breaks down doors, but there is a thread worth pulling here: he shows genuine ability over long distances. In four races at 2 miles or more, he has won once and placed twice—a 25 percent win rate that is nearly five times better than his overall record. When the ground stretches out and stamina becomes the test, Convincing becomes a different proposition entirely.Based on TrackLab's analysis
📊 Key numbers
Career totals for this horse
🔍 Full analysis
Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
Recent form tells a mixed story. His last six runs read 8-1-5-11-5-9, a dizzying mixture of bad days and decent ones. He was eighth most recently, a week before that he was fifth—respectable enough finishes in what appear to be competitive races. The win came in the middle of that run, on 8 August at Kilbeggan, and since then he has failed to trouble the judge again. Trainer Ciaran Murphy, based in Mullingar, has kept him active and racing regularly, which suggests confidence in the horse's ability to improve. Murphy's yard is having a solid season with 18 winners to their name, so the trainer knows how to get the job done. For Convincing, the pathway forward runs through distance races where his stamina can shine. Without the staying power, he is just another middle-of-the-road runner. With it, he becomes something to watch.
⚡ Strengths and risks
What helps this horse and what to watch out for
✓ What works in their favour
✔ Excellent record on good ground: 1 wins from 6 starts (17%)
✔ Well suited by Long Distance (2m+) distances: 25% win rate
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on heavy ground: 0 wins from 6 starts
⚠ Poor record on yielding ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
⚠ Poor record on standard ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
⚠ Struggles on LH Galloping tracks: 0 wins from 5 starts
⚠ Struggles on RH Galloping tracks: 0 wins from 5 starts
🎯 Where this horse runs best
Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Good (a little give)
Loves
Soft to heavy (wet)
Unknown
Yielding (slightly soft)
Avoids
Standard (all-weather)
Avoids
📏 Race distance
Long Distance (2M+)
Loves
🏟 Track shape
Right-handed, tight
Loves
Right-handed, hilly
Unknown
Left-handed, long straights
Avoids
Right-handed, long straights
Avoids
Left-handed, tight turns
Avoids
📅 Recent runs
The last 10 races, most recent first
10 Sep
8th
Laytown
7f – 1m · Standard · 9 runners
8 Aug
🏆 Won
Kilbeggan
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 14 runners
22 Jul
5th
Naas
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 18 runners
15 Jul
11th
Killarney
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 13 runners
30 Mar
5th
Navan
1m3f – 1m4f · Heavy · 14 runners
15 Mar
9th
The Curragh
1m1f – 1m2f · Heavy · 29 runners
5 Feb
7th
Thurles
Long Distance (2m+) · Soft · 21 runners
11 Jan
13th
Punchestown
Long Distance (2m+) · Soft_To_Heavy · 25 runners
26 Dec
10th
Limerick
Long Distance (2m+) · Heavy · 21 runners
21 Nov
10th
Dundalk
1m3f – 1m4f · Standard · 16 runners
🏇 Jockeys
Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
🏟 Course record
Win rate at each course this horse has visited
| Course | Races | Results | Last run | Win rate |
|---|
| Killarney Sharp |
4 |
2 thirds, 2 other |
15 Jul |
0% |
| Naas Galloping |
2 |
1 third, 1 other |
22 Jul |
0% |
| The Curragh Galloping |
2 |
2 other |
15 Mar |
0% |
| Galway Tight |
2 |
2 other |
2 Aug |
0% |
| Dundalk Galloping |
2 |
2 other |
21 Nov |
0% |
| Kilbeggan Tight |
1 |
1 win |
8 Aug |
100% |
| Punchestown Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
11 Jan |
0% |
| Navan Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
30 Mar |
0% |
| Limerick Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
26 Dec |
0% |
| Thurles Undulating |
1 |
1 other |
5 Feb |
0% |
| Laytown Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
10 Sep |
0% |
| Gowran Park Undulating |
1 |
1 other |
20 Sep |
0% |
| Down Royal Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
30 May |
0% |