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Commanche Falls

Commanche Falls is a nine-year-old horse that has spent nearly four years chasing the winner's enclosure. It won back-to-back top-tier races at Newbury and York in the summer of 2023—a high-water mark that now feels distant. It still races regularly: the most recent outing was just a day ago, when it finished seventh.Based on TrackLab's analysis
Quick facts
Age
9 years old
Sex
Gelding
Colour
Brown
Father
Lethal Force
Mother
Joyeaux
Owner
Doug Graham Ian Davison Alan Drysdale
Official rating
87

📊 Key numbers

Career totals for this horse
45
Career races
4
Wins
8.9%
Win rate
avg ~10%
37.8%
Top-3 rate
avg ~30%
13 days
Since last race

🔍 Full analysis

Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
TrackLab's detailed breakdown

The numbers tell a story of a horse that has found its level and is hanging on to it. Over 45 career races, Commanche Falls has won 4 times, a win rate of roughly 1 in 11 starts. At Class 2 level—where it competes most often—the picture is grimmer: just 1 win from 23 races. Those two Class 1 wins in 2023 stand out as genuine peaks, moments when the horse delivered on a bigger stage. The Class 2 victory at Goodwood in July 2022 was its first, marking the beginning of a brief purple patch that culminated in those two top-tier wins the following year.

Under trainer Michael Dods at Piercebridge in County Durham, Commanche Falls has been a reliable but unglamorous performer. Its most frequent partner is jockey Connor Beasley, who has ridden the horse to 4 wins from 34 races together—a partnership that works at 12%, slightly better than the horse's overall average. Recent form has been patchy: two sevenths, an eleventh, and a couple of mid-field finishes across the last six races. At nine years old, Commanche Falls remains active and competitive, but the gap since its last win suggests it may be gradually moving into the veteran phase where top-flight victories become harder to reach.

⚡ Strengths and risks

What helps this horse and what to watch out for
✓ What works in their favour
✔ Excellent record on good_to_soft ground: 1 wins from 7 starts (14%)
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on soft ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
⚠ Poor record on heavy ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
⚠ Yet to win at Doncaster in 5 attempts
⚠ Yet to win at Ayr in 5 attempts
⚠ Struggles on RH Sharp tracks: 0 wins from 6 starts

🎯 Where this horse runs best

Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Good to soft (some give)
Loves
Good (a little give)
Good to firm (fairly firm)
Ok
Yielding (slightly soft)
Unknown
Soft (muddy)
Avoids
Heavy (very wet)
Avoids
📏 Race distance
5F – 6½F
7F – 1M
Unknown
🏅 Race level
Class 1 (elite)
Loves
Class 2 (high-level)
Avoids
🏟 Track shape
Right-handed, hilly
Loves
Right-handed, long straights
Left-handed, long straights
Ok
Left-handed, hilly
Unknown
Right-handed, tight turns
Avoids

📅 Recent runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
5 Oct
7th
Pontefract
5f – 6½f · Good · 13 runners
19 Sep
16th
Ayr
5f – 6½f · Heavy · 25 runners
5 Sep
8th
Thirsk
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Soft · 10 runners
3 Aug
3rd
Ripon
5f – 6½f · Good · 7 runners
25 Jul
11th
York
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Firm · 22 runners
17 Jul
7th
Hamilton Park
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Firm · 8 runners
11 Oct
9th
York
5f – 6½f · Good · 22 runners
20 Sep
12th
Ayr
5f – 6½f · Soft · 25 runners
14 Sep
9th
Doncaster
7f – 1m · Good_To_Soft · 17 runners
23 Aug
2nd
York
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Firm · 20 runners

🏇 Jockeys

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
Connor Beasley Current jockey
11.8%
Win rate
4/34
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/2
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
Phil Dennis
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides

🏟 Course record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast runWin rate
York
Galloping
10 1 win, 2 seconds, 2 thirds, 5 other 25 Jul 10%
Doncaster
Galloping
5 1 second, 4 other 14 Sep 0%
Ayr
Galloping
5 1 second, 4 other 19 Sep 0%
Ascot
Galloping
4 1 second, 1 third, 2 other 4 Oct 0%
The Curragh
Galloping
3 1 win, 2 other 30 Jun 33.3%
Hamilton Park
Sharp
3 1 second, 2 other 17 Jul 0%
Newbury
Galloping
2 1 win, 1 other 20 Jul 50%
Goodwood
Undulating
2 1 win, 1 other 2 Aug 50%
Newmarket
Galloping
2 1 second, 1 other 18 Apr 0%
Haydock Park
Galloping
2 1 second, 1 third 8 Jun 0%
Ripon
Sharp
2 1 third, 1 other 3 Aug 0%
Epsom Downs
Undulating
1 1 other 4 Jun 0%
Beverley
Undulating
1 1 other 31 Aug 0%
Thirsk
Galloping
1 1 other 5 Sep 0%
Pontefract
Undulating
1 1 other 5 Oct 0%
Leicester
Sharp
1 1 other 26 Apr 0%