Clementines Star

The form over the past month reads 10-3-1-2-3-3, and while that 10th place two weeks back was a step backward, the string of placings either side suggests Clementines Star remains competitive. The key detail is distance: the horse has won one of four races between seven furlongs and a mile, a 25 percent win rate that towers above its overall figures. Anything shorter or longer seems to blunt its effectiveness, so races in that sweet spot are where to watch for improvement.

Daniel and Claire Kubler's Lambourn yard has sent out 34 winners already this season, a healthy return that suggests they know what they're doing. Clementines Star was last out just a day ago, so the team clearly believes there is more to come. Seven weeks without a win is a dry spell, but the run of placings shows the horse is knocking on the door. At three years old, with the right race at the right distance, another winner looks very much within reach.