Cixi

What is more encouraging is the trajectory. Her recent form reads 10-4-3-5-4-4, working backwards from her most recent run just yesterday — and that third-place finish in the middle of the sequence shows she is capable of mixing it with horses ahead of her. She has not been disgraced in most of her outings; she simply has not yet found a race she can win.

The yard behind her gives genuine reason for optimism. Michael Bell's Newmarket operation has sent out 44 winners already this season, which marks it as one of the more productive stables in the country right now. A trainer running at that kind of volume tends to know where and when to place a horse for maximum effect, and Cixi will presumably get more opportunities to find a race that suits her. Whether she can convert is the question — but with a live, active campaign underway and the yard clearly still believing in her, the next run will be worth watching.