Charlus

The most encouraging corner of Charlus's record is over longer distances. At trips between a mile and six furlongs and two miles, the horse has won 1 from 5 races — a 20% win rate, or 1 in every 5 tries. That's double the overall career average, which tells you something important: Charlus simply does better when asked to stay on and grind it out rather than compete at shorter distances. Getting the trip right matters with this one.

Behind the horse stands one of British racing's most productive operations. Dan Skelton's yard in Alcester, Warwickshire has sent out 187 winners already this season — a remarkable output that puts Skelton among the very busiest and most successful trainers in the country. Horses leaving that stable tend to be placed with care and purpose, so when Charlus lines up next, it's worth paying attention to the conditions. With a run just 16 days ago, this horse is active and fit, and a return to those preferred longer distances on the right day of racing could make the gap between Charlus and a second career win shorter than the record alone suggests.