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Change Of Fortune

There is something quietly stubborn about a horse that keeps turning up. Change Of Fortune has raced 38 times and won just once — that is a win rate of roughly 1 in every 38 races, or just 3% — and yet here it is, still competing at seven years old and still finding ways to finish in the frame. Ten place finishes from those 38 races tells you this horse is not disgracing itself; it keeps getting close enough to matter, just not quite close enough to win.Based on TrackLab's AI analysis
Quick Facts
Age
7 years old
Sex
Gelding
Colour
Chestnut
Father
Cityscape
Mother
Secret Dream
Owner
Alan J Williams
Rating
47

📊 Key Numbers

Career statistics for this horse
38
Career races
1
Wins
2.6%
Win rate
avg ~10%
26.3%
Place rate (top 3)
avg ~30%
4 days
Since last race

🏁 Next Race

Tomorrow
Ffos Las
About 1.5 miles · Ideal conditions · 8 runners

🔍 Full Analysis

TrackLab's AI-generated assessment based on career data and recent form
TrackLab's Detailed Breakdown
Auto-Generated

That one victory came at Ffos Las on 22 June 2025, which makes it the defining moment of this horse's career so far. Ffos Las is a track in west Wales, and for a yard based in Mid Glamorgan, it is effectively home territory. Bernard Llewellyn trains out of Fochriw and has sent out 8 winners this season, so the operation clearly knows what it is doing — getting Change Of Fortune to the winner's enclosure there felt like the right horse at the right place at the right time.

The distances where this horse runs best — between a mile and one furlong and a mile and two furlongs — have produced that single win from 17 attempts, a win rate of 6%. That sounds modest, but it is actually double the horse's overall career average, which tells you the team have identified the right conditions; they just need everything else to fall into place. At Class 6, the lowest tier of British racing, Change Of Fortune has won 1 from 20 races. Class 6 is where horses compete when the aim is finding a race they can be competitive in rather than chasing glory, and even at that level, wins have been hard to come by.

The most recent form makes for interesting reading: the last six runs read 3-3-4-4-5-8 going back in time, which means the horse has been finishing third, third, fourth, fourth — consistently close but not converting. Jockey Jordan Williams has partnered the horse nine times without a win, though that pairing has clearly produced plenty of those near-misses. Change Of Fortune raced just four days ago and remains an active runner, which suggests the yard still believes there is another day in it. Given everything, that faith seems entirely reasonable.

Strengths & Risks

What the data says works for and against this horse
✓ What works in their favour
Excellent record on good_to_soft ground: 1 wins from 6 starts (17%)
Well suited by 1m1f – 1m2f distances: 6% win rate
⚠ What to watch out for
Poor record on good ground: 0 wins from 9 starts
Poor record on standard ground: 0 wins from 9 starts
Poor record on soft ground: 0 wins from 5 starts
Poor record on heavy ground: 0 wins from 4 starts
Poor record on good_to_firm ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
Yet to win at Wolverhampton in 6 attempts
Struggles on LH Undulating tracks: 0 wins from 5 starts
Struggles on RH Sharp tracks: 0 wins from 5 starts

🎯 Where This Horse Thrives

Performance broken down by ground, distance, class, and track type
🌧 Ground Conditions
Good to soft (some give)
Loves
Standard to slow (all-weather)
Unknown
Good (firm-ish)
Avoids
Standard (all-weather)
Avoids
Soft (muddy)
Avoids
Heavy (very wet)
Avoids
Good to firm (drying out)
Avoids
📏 Race Distance
1M1F – 1M2F
Loves
1M6F – 2M
Unknown
1M3F – 1M4F
Avoids
🏅 Competition Level
Class 4 (standard)
Avoids
Class 5 (entry-level)
Avoids
Class 6 (grassroots)
Loves
🏟 Track Shape
Left-handed, long straights
Loves
Long straights
Unknown
Left-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Left-handed, hilly
Avoids
Right-handed, tight turns
Avoids
Right-handed, long straights
Avoids

📅 Recent Runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
25 Mar
4th
Lingfield Park
1m6f – 2m · Standard · 12 runners
23 Feb
8th
Wolverhampton
1m1f – 1m2f · Standard · 9 runners
30 Jan
5th
Wolverhampton
1m1f – 1m2f · Standard · 10 runners
28 Sep
4th
Ffos Las
1m1f – 1m2f · Heavy · 10 runners
29 Aug
3rd
Ffos Las
1m3f – 1m4f · Soft · 7 runners
5 Aug
3rd
Ffos Las
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 9 runners
31 Jul
4th
Nottingham
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Soft · 10 runners
30 Jun
4th
Ffos Las
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Soft · 9 runners
22 Jun
🏆 Won
Ffos Las
1m1f – 1m2f · Good_To_Soft · 8 runners
10 Jun
2nd
Wolverhampton
1m1f – 1m2f · Standard · 9 runners

🏇 Jockey Partnerships

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, sorted by rides together
0%
Win rate
0/9
Won / Rode
Elizabeth Gale
20%
Win rate
1/5
Won / Rode
Dane O'Neill
0%
Win rate
0/5
Won / Rode
Miss Jessica Llewellyn
0%
Win rate
0/4
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
David Probert Current Jockey
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode

🏟 Track Record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast visitedWin rate
Ffos Las
Galloping
10 1 win, 1 second, 4 thirds, 4 other 28 Sep 10%
Wolverhampton
Galloping
6 1 second, 5 other 23 Feb 0%
Windsor
Sharp
4 1 second, 3 other 23 Oct 0%
Bath
Undulating
4 4 other 21 Oct 0%
Nottingham
Galloping
3 1 third, 2 other 31 Jul 0%
Kempton Park
Galloping
2 1 third, 1 other 8 Mar 0%
Newmarket
Galloping
2 2 other 22 Sep 0%
Newbury
Galloping
2 2 other 13 Jun 0%
Epsom Downs
Undulating
1 1 other 29 Aug 0%
Southwell
Galloping
1 1 other 31 Mar 0%
Hamilton Park
Sharp
1 1 other 18 Jul 0%
Lingfield Park
Sharp
1 1 other 25 Mar 0%
chelmsford 1 1 other 18 Apr 0%