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Change Of Fortune

Here is a horse that will test the patience of anyone watching. In 40 races across a seven-year career, Change Of Fortune has crossed the line first just once — a win rate of 1 in 40, or roughly 2%, which puts it among the most persistent nearly-horses in training. For context, a decent racehorse might win 1 in every 5 or 6 races. Change Of Fortune wins 1 in 40. And yet, remarkably, it has placed — finishing second or third — on 11 occasions, which tells you something about the horse: it keeps showing up, keeps getting close, just rarely quite gets there.Based on TrackLab's AI analysis
Quick Facts
Age
7 years old
Sex
Gelding
Colour
Chestnut
Father
Cityscape
Mother
Secret Dream
Owner
Alan J Williams
Rating
47

📊 Key Numbers

Career statistics for this horse
40
Career races
1
Wins
2.5%
Win rate
avg ~10%
27.5%
Place rate (top 3)
avg ~30%
1 days
Since last race

🔍 Full Analysis

TrackLab's AI-generated assessment based on career data and recent form
TrackLab's Detailed Breakdown
Auto-Generated

That one win came at Ffos Las in Wales on 22 June 2025, and it is worth appreciating how long in the making it was. Ffos Las is a relatively relaxed, undulating track in Carmarthenshire, and it clearly suits this horse — all of its best performances over distances of around a mile and a furlong to a mile and two furlongs have come at venues like this rather than on the big stages. At that trip, it has won 1 from 17 attempts, a 6% win rate, which sounds modest but is actually where it does its best work. Class 6 is the lowest tier of British racing, and that is where Change Of Fortune competes, going 1 from 20 at that level. These are fields full of horses with similar profiles — tough to win, but still turning up.

Trained by Bernard Llewellyn out of a small yard in Fochriw in Mid Glamorgan, the horse is part of an operation that has sent out 12 winners this season, so it is not as though the yard is struggling — it knows how to get a horse home. The most regular jockey, Jordan Williams, has ridden Change Of Fortune nine times without a win between them, though that solitary June victory proves the partnership can work in the right conditions.

What makes this horse genuinely interesting is the sheer accumulation of effort. Forty races is a long career for a horse still racing at seven, and Change Of Fortune has been competitive enough to place nearly a third of the time without ever threatening to become a serial winner. It raced just yesterday, so the story is still being written. Whether there is another Ffos Las moment somewhere ahead remains to be seen — but this is a horse that clearly has no intention of stopping.

Strengths & Risks

What the data says works for and against this horse
✓ What works in their favour
Excellent record on good_to_soft ground: 1 wins from 8 starts (12%)
Well suited by 1m1f – 1m2f distances: 6% win rate
⚠ What to watch out for
Poor record on good ground: 0 wins from 9 starts
Poor record on standard ground: 0 wins from 9 starts
Poor record on soft ground: 0 wins from 5 starts
Poor record on heavy ground: 0 wins from 4 starts
Poor record on good_to_firm ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
Yet to win at Wolverhampton in 6 attempts
Struggles on RH Sharp tracks: 0 wins from 5 starts
Struggles on LH Undulating tracks: 0 wins from 5 starts

🎯 Where This Horse Thrives

Performance broken down by ground, distance, class, and track type
🌧 Ground Conditions
Good to soft (some give)
Loves
Standard to slow (all-weather)
Unknown
Good (firm-ish)
Avoids
Standard (all-weather)
Avoids
Soft (muddy)
Avoids
Heavy (very wet)
Avoids
Good to firm (drying out)
Avoids
📏 Race Distance
1M1F – 1M2F
Loves
1M6F – 2M
Unknown
1M3F – 1M4F
Avoids
🏅 Competition Level
Class 4 (standard)
Avoids
Class 5 (entry-level)
Avoids
Class 6 (grassroots)
Loves
🏟 Track Shape
Left-handed, long straights
Loves
Long straights
Unknown
Left-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Right-handed, tight turns
Avoids
Left-handed, hilly
Avoids
Right-handed, long straights
Avoids

📅 Recent Runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
15 Jun
9th
Chepstow
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Soft · 11 runners
4 Jun
3rd
Ffos Las
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Soft · 8 runners
25 Mar
4th
Lingfield Park
1m6f – 2m · Standard · 12 runners
23 Feb
8th
Wolverhampton
1m1f – 1m2f · Standard · 9 runners
30 Jan
5th
Wolverhampton
1m1f – 1m2f · Standard · 10 runners
28 Sep
4th
Ffos Las
1m1f – 1m2f · Heavy · 10 runners
29 Aug
3rd
Ffos Las
1m3f – 1m4f · Soft · 7 runners
5 Aug
3rd
Ffos Las
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 9 runners
31 Jul
4th
Nottingham
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Soft · 10 runners
30 Jun
4th
Ffos Las
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Soft · 9 runners

🏇 Jockey Partnerships

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, sorted by rides together
0%
Win rate
0/9
Won / Rode
Elizabeth Gale
20%
Win rate
1/5
Won / Rode
Dane O'Neill
0%
Win rate
0/5
Won / Rode
Miss Jessica Llewellyn Current Jockey
0%
Win rate
0/4
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/3
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode

🏟 Track Record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast visitedWin rate
Ffos Las
Galloping
11 1 win, 1 second, 5 thirds, 4 other 4 Jun 9.1%
Wolverhampton
Galloping
6 1 second, 5 other 23 Feb 0%
Windsor
Sharp
4 1 second, 3 other 23 Oct 0%
Bath
Undulating
4 4 other 21 Oct 0%
Nottingham
Galloping
3 1 third, 2 other 31 Jul 0%
Newmarket
Galloping
2 2 other 22 Sep 0%
Newbury
Galloping
2 2 other 13 Jun 0%
Kempton Park
Galloping
2 1 third, 1 other 8 Mar 0%
Southwell
Galloping
1 1 other 31 Mar 0%
chelmsford 1 1 other 18 Apr 0%
Hamilton Park
Sharp
1 1 other 18 Jul 0%
Epsom Downs
Undulating
1 1 other 29 Aug 0%
Lingfield Park
Sharp
1 1 other 25 Mar 0%
Chepstow
Galloping
1 1 other 15 Jun 0%