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Certain Lad

There is a particular kind of racehorse that takes years to fully understand, and Certain Lad is one of them. Now a ten-year-old with a career stretching across two decades, he has won 2 of his 21 races — roughly 1 in every 10 — but that number tells only a fraction of the story. What it misses entirely is the quality of those wins. Both came in top-tier Class 2 races in October 2023, at York and then Doncaster, and both arrived off the back of a long, difficult road through injury. His trainer Jack Channon explained it simply after Doncaster: Certain Lad had been rated 112 at his peak, tumbled back down to 100 after years of physical setbacks, and won twice in a fortnight once the handicapper had finally given him a fair mark to work from. As Channon put it, the system is there for a reason.Based on TrackLab's analysis
Quick facts
Age
10 years old
Sex
Gelding
Colour
Bay
Father
Clodovil
Mother
Chelsey Jayne
Owner
C R Hirst
Official rating
105

📊 Key numbers

Career totals for this horse
21
Career races
2
Wins
9.5%
Win rate
avg ~10%
47.6%
Top-3 rate
avg ~30%
153 days
Since last race

🔍 Full analysis

Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
TrackLab's detailed breakdown

The injuries at five and six cost him dearly. A horse that had won a Listed race as a two-year-old, finished third in the Railway Stakes, and won in Dubai clearly had enormous ability — but the body kept letting him down before he could build on it. This season was supposed to be different. Channon described it as the first campaign Certain Lad has entered without carrying any physical baggage, and the team moved fast, targeting a crack at Group-level racing in France rather than sitting safely in lower-grade events that a horse with his record could probably win.

That ambition is reflected in where he now spends most of his time — Class 1 races, the very top tier of British racing. He has run eleven times at that level without winning, but his recent form (third and second in his last two finished races) suggests he belongs in that company. Jockey George Bass has partnered him in 15 of his 21 races, winning twice together, a win rate of about 1 in 7 when they combine. That kind of long-term partnership matters — Bass knows this horse.

He last won 31 months ago, and those six winless runs will raise a question mark. But Channon's plan for Certain Lad was never really about accumulating wins — it was about landing one big one. A horse that has cleared every injury hurdle to reach ten years old, still competing at the highest level, still placing, still being pointed at Group 1s, is a horse his yard clearly believes has unfinished business.

⚡ Strengths and risks

What helps this horse and what to watch out for
✓ What works in their favour
✔ Excellent record on soft ground: 1 wins from 5 starts (20%)
✔ Excellent record on heavy ground: 1 wins from 3 starts (33%)
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on good ground: 0 wins from 7 starts
⚠ Poor record on good_to_firm ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
⚠ Poor record on good_to_soft ground: 0 wins from 3 starts

🎯 Where this horse runs best

Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Soft (muddy)
Loves
Heavy (very wet)
Loves
Good (a little give)
Avoids
Good to firm (fairly firm)
Avoids
Good to soft (some give)
Avoids
📏 Race distance
1M3F – 1M4F
1M6F – 2M
Unknown
1M1F – 1M2F
Avoids
🏅 Race level
Class 1 (elite)
Avoids
Class 2 (high-level)
Loves
🏟 Track shape
Left-handed, long straights
Loves
Right-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Right-handed, hilly
Unknown
Right-handed, long straights
Avoids
Left-handed, tight
Avoids

📅 Recent runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
22 May
9th
Goodwood
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 9 runners
19 Oct
3rd
Leopardstown
1m3f – 1m4f · Heavy · 10 runners
20 Sep
4th
Ayr
1m3f – 1m4f · Soft · 6 runners
26 Jul
7th
York
1m3f – 1m4f · Good · 7 runners
9 May
6th
Chester
1m3f – 1m4f · Good · 7 runners
24 Aug
2nd
Windsor
1m3f – 1m4f · Soft · 9 runners
10 Aug
2nd
Haydock Park
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Firm · 7 runners
23 May
2nd
Sandown Park
1m1f – 1m2f · Soft · 5 runners
20 Apr
4th
Newbury
1m6f – 2m · Good_To_Soft · 10 runners
28 Oct
🏆 Won
Doncaster
1m3f – 1m4f · Heavy · 8 runners

🏇 Jockeys

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
George Bass Current jockey
13.3%
Win rate
2/15
Wins / rides
Ben Curtis
0%
Win rate
0/3
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides

🏟 Course record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast runWin rate
York
Galloping
4 1 win, 3 other 26 Jul 25%
Chester
Tight
3 1 second, 1 third, 1 other 9 May 0%
Haydock Park
Galloping
2 1 second, 1 third 10 Aug 0%
Ascot
Galloping
2 2 other 20 Jun 0%
Newbury
Galloping
2 2 other 20 Apr 0%
Sandown Park
Galloping
2 2 seconds 23 May 0%
Doncaster
Galloping
1 1 win 28 Oct 100%
Great Yarmouth
Galloping
1 1 other 27 Jul 0%
Ayr
Galloping
1 1 other 20 Sep 0%
Windsor
Sharp
1 1 second 24 Aug 0%
Leopardstown
Galloping
1 1 third 19 Oct 0%
Goodwood
Undulating
1 1 other 22 May 0%