Carlas Big Jim

What makes those two wins worth talking about is how they came. Both arrived in early 2024 — first at Clonmel in February, then at Gowran Park the following month — and both on very wet, muddy ground. On that kind of surface, Carlas Big Jim has won 2 from 12 attempts, which works out at roughly 1 in every 6 races. That might not sound dramatic, but it is more than three times the horse's overall win rate, and it tells a clear story: when the ground gets genuinely horrible, this horse wakes up. On a heavy winter's day when other horses are hating every step, Carlas Big Jim is in its element.

The partnership with Mr C J Shine is the other thread worth following. In 15 races together they have landed both of those career wins, a win rate of 13% — or roughly 1 in every 8 rides. Given the horse's overall record, that is a meaningful number. There is clearly something that works between this jockey and this horse, and if Shine is in the saddle next time out, it is worth paying attention.

The problem is that next win is now overdue. Carlas Big Jim has not won in 25 months, not since that Gowran Park success in March 2024, and the recent form — a couple of mid-field finishes and two blank runs in the last six — does not shout that a change is coming soon. Still, the horse raced just seven days ago, so the yard are keeping it active and looking for opportunities. If a genuinely muddy day arrives and Shine is booked to ride, the formula that produced both wins in life is at least in place. Whether that is enough to end a long wait, only the weather — and the horse — will decide.