Blackwater Lilly

That sole victory at Bangor-on-Dee is worth noting, because it came over a long distance — she is at her best when races are run over two miles or more, winning 1 from 15 races at those trips (around 7%). At shorter distances, the numbers are even leaner. There is a horse here who genuinely needs time and space to find her rhythm, and Bangor, with its tight turning track, suits a horse that travels well over a distance rather than relying on raw pace. The puzzle is that her most common class of race — Class 5, the entry-level tier — has brought her zero wins from seven starts. Her one career win actually came in a different grade, which suggests she may occasionally find her best form when asked a slightly different question.

At six years old and racing just yesterday, Blackwater Lilly is very much still active and in the care of Neil King's yard in Wroughton, Wiltshire — a team that has sent out 16 winners this season, so they clearly know how to get a horse ready to win. Her most regular jockey is Craig Nichol, who has partnered her to that one win from six rides together — a 17% win rate between them, which is actually not bad when you strip away the broader picture. Her recent run of form reads 6-4-4-4-11-2, which tells you she is consistently running into a placing position without quite getting there. Second place last time but one, a string of fourths — it is the sort of form that makes you wonder if the winning moment might come around again sooner than the overall record suggests.