Blackwater Lilly

Recent form suggests the horse remains in the hunt but rarely finishes in front. Over its last six races, it has not finished worse than sixth, posting two fourths and a third, which hints at consistency without the spark needed to win. Ridden most often by Craig Nichol, the pair have managed one win together from six races, a 17% win rate that is better than the horse's overall record but still leaves plenty of room for improvement. Trainer Neil King, based at Wroughton in Wiltshire, has been sending out winners regularly this season, so the yard is clearly capable, but Blackwater Lilly has not been the one collecting those trophies.

The horse seems to find its best form at longer distances over two miles or more, yet even there the numbers are thin — one win from 17 races at that trip. Step it up in class, and the picture grows harder still. In seven races at the top of its usual grade, it has won zero times. All of this points to a horse that belongs in the handicap mill, collecting minor placings and waiting for the odd day when everything aligns just right. It raced just yesterday, so it remains a working horse rather than a retirement story, but with only one victory in nearly two years, Blackwater Lilly is the definition of a trier without a breakthrough.