Blackjack Hills

Matthew J Smith's yard at Kilmessan has kept the horse racing regularly, which suggests they still believe in it, but the form has been erratic. Over the last six outings, Blackjack Hills has scraped together just two wins — decent on paper until you note that it has also finished eighth twice and seventh once. The horse wins roughly 1 in every 6 races overall (2 wins from 12), which is respectable but hardly compelling. The telling detail is what distance suits it: over 1m1f to 1m2f, the horse has managed 1 win from 3 races, a win rate of roughly 1 in 3. That suggests Blackjack Hills performs noticeably better when given a bit of ground to find its rhythm, rather than in shorter sprints where it seems to struggle.

The horse raced just yesterday, so it is still active and clearly still racing for a reason. Whether it can recapture last autumn's spark — when it won twice in quick succession — remains to be seen. For now, Blackjack Hills is a horse with a decent pedigree on the form sheet but a recent record that is going nowhere fast. It needs to either rediscover that winning formula at its favoured distance or risk drifting further into the middle ground.