Belle Le Grand

The key to unlocking Belle Le Grand is straightforward: get her on decent ground. On normal conditions she has won 4 of her 7 races — more than half — which is a remarkable conversion rate for any racehorse at any level. Take her off that and the story changes quickly. Trainer Dan Skelton made no secret of it after she ran flat at Hexham last autumn, pointing directly to the soft, wet ground as the culprit and promising to find better conditions through winter and into spring. That kind of honesty from a trainer is telling — Skelton knows exactly what this horse needs, and when she gets it, she delivers.

Skelton's yard, based in Alcester in Warwickshire, has sent out 194 winners this season alone, which puts it among the most productive operations in the country. A horse doesn't stay in a yard like that without earning her keep. Belle Le Grand has done that — she won twice over hurdles earlier in the season, and most recently scored at Newton Abbot just three weeks ago, suggesting she is in the form of her life right now.

What makes that Newton Abbot win particularly interesting is the context around it. Her recent run of form reads 6-1-6-11-8-6 going back from her latest race, meaning she sandwiched that winning run between some very ordinary efforts. That is the profile of a horse who is highly specific about what she wants — give her the right ground and she is competitive; give her the wrong conditions and she simply doesn't perform. It's not inconsistency so much as a clear set of preferences.

Regular rider Liam Harrison hasn't yet got off the mark with her across six rides together, but with Belle Le Grand having raced just yesterday and arriving in form on ground she loves, the yard will be hoping that partnership clicks sooner rather than later. The building blocks are all there.