Belgarum

Over a career spanning 28 races, Belgarum has won 5 times and finished in the places on 11 further occasions — meaning it has given its the yard something to cheer in more than half its races. That overall win rate of roughly 1 in every 6 races (18%) is respectable, but the Fontwell figures — closer to 1 in every 2 — tell the real story. The horse also has a clear preference for normal ground conditions, winning all 5 of its career races on a standard surface, going 5 from 17 (29%) in those conditions. Put it on wet or firm ground and the results dry up fast.

Jockey Brendan Powell has been in the saddle for 12 of those 28 races, winning just the once together — a modest 1-in-12 partnership that hasn't quite caught fire. That said, Belgarum's current form is hard to argue with: in its last six races, it has posted a second place, a win, and a third, suggesting a horse in decent nick right now. It raced just yesterday, which makes it one of the more active horses around at the moment.

Most of Belgarum's racing has come at Class 5 level — the entry-level tier of British racing — where it has won 3 from 14 (21%). That context matters: this isn't a horse mixing it with the elite, but at its level, on its favourite track, in normal conditions, it is a genuine handful. Joe Tizzard's yard has sent out 58 winners this season alone, so Belgarum is part of a yard in confident form. A horse that knows where it likes to run, and keeps getting sent there — sometimes that's all the strategy you need.