Bel Amigo

The broader pattern tells a slightly different tale. Bel Amigo has not found the winner's circle in its last six races, a run that includes a couple of respectable placings but nothing better than third. It performs best on normal ground conditions, winning two of five races when the surface is neither unusually soft nor unusually firm. When stepped up to Class 4 races—the kind of competitive middle-ground events most horses at this level encounter—it wins 43 per cent of the time, three wins from seven attempts. That is genuine form. Trainer N. W. Alexander, based at Leslie in Fife, has kept the horse active, and it raced just a day ago, so there is no sense of this being a tired old campaigner waiting out his days. Bruce Lynn has been the regular jockey, partnering Bel Amigo nine times for two wins, a 22 per cent win rate together. The question now is whether the partnership can find another winning moment, or whether Carlisle's magic has faded.