Avicenna

What makes Avicenna genuinely interesting is his consistency over the distance where he thrives. At races between seven furlongs and a mile, he has won two of his three attempts, a 67 per cent win rate that suggests he has found his range early. His recent form reads 1-1-2-14-16-5 (most recent first), which tells you he is still learning his trade—that recent fifth place is a bump, not a disaster—but the back-to-back wins from four months ago show what he can do when conditions suit. Over six races he has won twice and been placed three times, a record of 33 per cent winners that reflects a horse doing better than simply competing.

Varian, who trains at Newmarket and has already sent out 87 winners this season alone, clearly sees more to come. In a recent stable visit, the trainer spoke of fresh ammunition: either the Craven or the Greenham as the next outing, with an eye on the Guineas as a potential next step. That is not idle talk—Avicenna is already entered in the English, Irish, French and German 2,000 Guineas. Yet Varian's caution is worth noting too. After that Doncaster win, he described the horse simply as "nice" and "learning on the job," and spoke of him becoming a miler, perhaps this year, perhaps next. There is ambition in the air around this horse, but no recklessness. That is often the mark of good horsemanship.