Arisaig

The picture improves dramatically at the right distance. Over 7 furlongs to a mile, Arisaig is a different proposition: she has won three of eight races at that range, a win rate of roughly 38%. That is the sweet spot where she shows what she is capable of. Trainer Charlie Johnston, who runs the Middleham Moor yard, clearly believes there is more to come. She describes her as very talented but needing to be ridden with restraint, and she was encouraged by her recent comeback, even though the result didn't show it on paper. Johnston is targeting the Listed Conqueror Stakes at Goodwood — the track where she last won — where he feels she was unlucky to miss out last year due to traffic problems. She sees fast, dry ground as her preference and is not settling for races of the everyday sort. If the ground suits and the right opportunities present themselves, Johnston has hinted at an ambitious tilt at Group 2 races, a significant step up.

The fact that Arisaig has never won at the highest class of race available to her — she has struck out in nine attempts at Class 2 level — suggests she will need everything to fall right and the timing to be perfect. But a horse with her talent over her ideal distances, trained by a yard that has sent out 131 winners this season, deserves another chance.