Aqua Bear
Aqua Bear broke through at Newcastle last November but has found life considerably harder since, going almost a year without another win. The three-year-old has been placed four times across 11 races overall, which shows promise in fits and starts, but that sole victory now sits eleven months in the past. The numbers tell the story: a win rate of around 1 in 11 races is modest, and the recent form reads like a horse searching for another breakthrough — a string of distant finishes interrupted only by the odd place, most notably a fourth at the track just days ago.Based on TrackLab's analysis
📊 Key numbers
Career totals for this horse
🔍 Full analysis
Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
What makes Aqua Bear worth watching, though, is that it remains actively racing under Ian Williams, a trainer whose yard at Portway in Worcestershire has sent out 96 winners this season. Williams clearly believes there is something to work with here. The horse is still young at three, and a debut winner can settle into a pattern of improvement rather than decline. For now, though, Aqua Bear is the definition of a trying performer — honest enough to get a placing now and then, but unable to find the consistency needed to rack up wins at a more regular clip. That November victory at Newcastle remains the high point, and the challenge is whether the yard can recreate the conditions that produced it.
⚡ Strengths and risks
What helps this horse and what to watch out for
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on good ground: 0 wins from 4 starts
⚠ Poor record on good_to_firm ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
🎯 Where this horse runs best
Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Standard (all-weather)
Unknown
Yielding (slightly soft)
Unknown
Good (a little give)
Avoids
Good to firm (fairly firm)
Avoids
🏅 Race level
Class 5 (entry-level)
Unknown
🏟 Track shape
Left-handed, long straights
Loves
Right-handed, hilly
Avoids
Right-handed, long straights
Avoids
📅 Recent runs
The last 10 races, most recent first
10 Oct
19th
York
7f – 1m · Soft · 20 runners
30 Jul
17th
Goodwood
1m1f – 1m2f · Good_To_Firm · 20 runners
10 Jul
11th
Newmarket
7f – 1m · Good_To_Firm · 11 runners
24 Jun
3rd
Carlisle
7f – 1m · Good_To_Firm · 11 runners
23 May
16th
Goodwood
7f – 1m · Good · 18 runners
8 May
4th
Ascot
7f – 1m · Good · 10 runners
22 Nov
🏆 Won
Newcastle
7f – 1m · Standard · 10 runners
10 Oct
2nd
Dundalk
7f – 1m · Standard · 17 runners
14 Sep
9th
The Curragh
5f – 6½f · Yielding · 16 runners
24 Aug
2nd
Naas
5f – 6½f · Good · 13 runners
🏇 Jockeys
Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
🏟 Course record
Win rate at each course this horse has visited
| Course | Races | Results | Last run | Win rate |
|---|
| Goodwood Undulating |
2 |
2 other |
30 Jul |
0% |
| Newcastle Galloping |
1 |
1 win |
22 Nov |
100% |
| Gowran Park Undulating |
1 |
1 other |
13 Aug |
0% |
| Naas Galloping |
1 |
1 second |
24 Aug |
0% |
| Dundalk Galloping |
1 |
1 second |
10 Oct |
0% |
| Carlisle Undulating |
1 |
1 third |
24 Jun |
0% |
| York Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
10 Oct |
0% |
| Ascot Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
8 May |
0% |
| The Curragh Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
14 Sep |
0% |
| Newmarket Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
10 Jul |
0% |