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Aqpan

Aqpan arrived at the winning post almost by accident. On a grey March afternoon at Southwell, the three-year-old wasn't even fully wound up when he crossed the line, only finding top gear in the closing strides. Trainer Roger Varian watched it unfold and saw something worth believing in. The yard, based in Newmarket and among the most successful in Britain with 87 winners already this season, rarely gets excited by a horse that stumbles across one victory. But there was something in the way Aqpan finished that day that made Varian think bigger.Based on TrackLab's analysis
Quick facts
Age
3 years old
Sex
Gelding
Colour
Brown
Father
Blue Point
Mother
Testimony
Owner
Nurlan Bizakov
Official rating
90

📊 Key numbers

Career totals for this horse
10
Career races
1
Wins
10%
Win rate
avg ~10%
40%
Top-3 rate
avg ~30%
6 days
Since last race

🔍 Full analysis

Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
TrackLab's detailed breakdown

Seven months have passed since that win, and Aqpan hasn't added to his tally. In his last six races he has finished second, eighth, twelfth, ninth, seventh and eighth — a run that would defeat most horses' backers. One win from ten races overall is a win rate of just 1 in 10, a record that tells you this is not an easy horse to get right. Yet Varian refuses to write him off. The trainer's ambitions for Aqpan stretch across the Channel to the French 2,000 Guineas, one of Europe's most prestigious races for young colts, and possibly a domestic trial in the Greenham first. He thinks the horse will handle a mile with no trouble at all. It's a bold claim for a colt whose recent form reads like a losing streak, but Varian seems convinced there is genuine class lurking beneath the surface. The question now is whether Aqpan can prove it, or whether that single victory on a damp afternoon remains his one shining moment.

🎯 Where this horse runs best

Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Good (a little give)
Unknown
Good to soft (some give)
Unknown
Standard to slow (all-weather)
Unknown
Good to firm (fairly firm)
Unknown
Standard (all-weather)
Unknown
📏 Race distance
7F – 1M
5F – 6½F
Unknown
1M1F – 1M2F
Unknown
🏅 Race level
Class 2 (high-level)
Unknown
Class 5 (entry-level)
Unknown
🏟 Track shape
Left-handed, long straights
Loves
Left-handed, tight
Unknown
Right-handed, hilly
Unknown
Right-handed, long straights
Avoids

📅 Recent runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
12 Oct
2nd
Kempton Park
1m1f – 1m2f · 14 runners
26 Sep
8th
Newmarket
7f – 1m · Good_To_Firm · 13 runners
22 Aug
12th
Chester
7f – 1m · Good_To_Soft · 14 runners
1 Aug
9th
Goodwood
7f – 1m · Good_To_Firm · 13 runners
23 May
7th
Haydock Park
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Soft · 8 runners
16 May
8th
Newbury
5f – 6½f · Good · 11 runners
18 Apr
6th
Newbury
7f – 1m · Good · 8 runners
28 Mar
🏆 Won 1%
Southwell
7f – 1m · Standard · 7 runners
17 Dec
2nd
Kempton Park
7f – 1m · Standard_To_Slow · 9 runners
1 Dec
2nd
Kempton Park
7f – 1m · Standard_To_Slow · 12 runners

🏇 Jockeys

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
50%
Win rate
1/2
Wins / rides
Jack Mitchell Current jockey
0%
Win rate
0/2
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides

🏟 Course record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast runWin rate
Kempton Park
Galloping
3 3 seconds 12 Oct 0%
Newbury
Galloping
2 2 other 16 May 0%
Southwell
Galloping
1 1 win 28 Mar 100%
Newmarket
Galloping
1 1 other 26 Sep 0%
Haydock Park
Galloping
1 1 other 23 May 0%
Goodwood
Undulating
1 1 other 1 Aug 0%
Chester
Tight
1 1 other 22 Aug 0%