Aqpan
Aqpan arrived at the winning post almost by accident. On a grey March afternoon at Southwell, the three-year-old wasn't even fully wound up when he crossed the line, only finding top gear in the closing strides. Trainer
Roger Varian watched it unfold and saw something worth believing in. The yard, based in Newmarket and among the most successful in Britain with 87 winners already this season, rarely gets excited by a horse that stumbles across one victory. But there was something in the way Aqpan finished that day that made Varian think bigger.
Based on TrackLab's analysis
📊 Key numbers
Career totals for this horse
🔍 Full analysis
Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
Seven months have passed since that win, and Aqpan hasn't added to his tally. In his last six races he has finished second, eighth, twelfth, ninth, seventh and eighth — a run that would defeat most horses' backers. One win from ten races overall is a win rate of just 1 in 10, a record that tells you this is not an easy horse to get right. Yet Varian refuses to write him off. The trainer's ambitions for Aqpan stretch across the Channel to the French 2,000 Guineas, one of Europe's most prestigious races for young colts, and possibly a domestic trial in the Greenham first. He thinks the horse will handle a mile with no trouble at all. It's a bold claim for a colt whose recent form reads like a losing streak, but Varian seems convinced there is genuine class lurking beneath the surface. The question now is whether Aqpan can prove it, or whether that single victory on a damp afternoon remains his one shining moment.
🎯 Where this horse runs best
Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Good (a little give)
Unknown
Good to soft (some give)
Unknown
Standard to slow (all-weather)
Unknown
Good to firm (fairly firm)
Unknown
Standard (all-weather)
Unknown
🏅 Race level
Class 2 (high-level)
Unknown
Class 5 (entry-level)
Unknown
🏟 Track shape
Left-handed, long straights
Loves
Left-handed, tight
Unknown
Right-handed, hilly
Unknown
Right-handed, long straights
Avoids
📅 Recent runs
The last 10 races, most recent first
12 Oct
2nd
Kempton Park
1m1f – 1m2f · 14 runners
26 Sep
8th
Newmarket
7f – 1m · Good_To_Firm · 13 runners
22 Aug
12th
Chester
7f – 1m · Good_To_Soft · 14 runners
1 Aug
9th
Goodwood
7f – 1m · Good_To_Firm · 13 runners
23 May
7th
Haydock Park
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Soft · 8 runners
16 May
8th
Newbury
5f – 6½f · Good · 11 runners
18 Apr
6th
Newbury
7f – 1m · Good · 8 runners
28 Mar
🏆 Won
1%
Southwell
7f – 1m · Standard · 7 runners
17 Dec
2nd
Kempton Park
7f – 1m · Standard_To_Slow · 9 runners
1 Dec
2nd
Kempton Park
7f – 1m · Standard_To_Slow · 12 runners
🏇 Jockeys
Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
🏟 Course record
Win rate at each course this horse has visited
| Course | Races | Results | Last run | Win rate |
| Kempton Park Galloping |
3 |
3 seconds |
12 Oct |
0% |
| Newbury Galloping |
2 |
2 other |
16 May |
0% |
| Southwell Galloping |
1 |
1 win |
28 Mar |
100% |
| Newmarket Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
26 Sep |
0% |
| Haydock Park Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
23 May |
0% |
| Goodwood Undulating |
1 |
1 other |
1 Aug |
0% |
| Chester Tight |
1 |
1 other |
22 Aug |
0% |