Aqpan

The raw figures are modest—one win from eight races is a 12% win rate—but recent form shows a horse finding his feet. His last six races read 1-6-8-7-9-12, and that win five months back broke a run of near-misses. In his two races last season, Varian felt he had been up against two very smart horses, the kind of early setbacks that don't necessarily mean much for a three-year-old still learning the game. At a yard sending out winners at this rate, backing an ambitious tilt at Classic trials suggests Varian believes there is genuine quality here—not just a plodder, but a horse they are willing to be bold with. Whether Aqpan can translate occasional form into consistency, and whether he truly belongs in that elevated company, remains to be seen. But he is active and still learning, and his trainer thinks distance will suit him.