American State

The distance sweet spot is clear: over a mile and one or two furlongs, American State has won 2 of 8 races — that 25% win rate is significantly better than its overall record, which suggests the yard have been working out where this horse is happiest. At Class 5 level — essentially the bread-and-butter tier of British racing, where solid but unspectacular horses find their level — it has also won 2 from 8 at that same 25% clip. When the trip and the grade line up, this is a horse that delivers.

The two wins are nicely spread. The first came at Newbury in June 2025, which is a well-regarded track that tends to flatter genuine performers. The second arrived at Wolverhampton just six weeks ago in February 2026 — an all-weather course that suits horses who handle a consistent surface well. That recent win is the most important detail here: American State is in form, active, and raced just nine days ago.

Trainer Ivan Furtado operates out of Wiseton in South Yorkshire and has sent out 34 winners already this season — a yard clearly in good health and finding winners consistently. Jockey Kieran Shoemark has been the regular partner, winning 1 of their 5 races together, which works out at 20% — better than one in five, a decent partnership by any measure. Recent form reads 6-1-7-8-8-11 with the 1 being that Wolverhampton win — the three runs before it were disappointing, but the latest result suggests American State has found its feet again. A horse that wins at 25% over its preferred trip and trip, trained by a yard firing on all cylinders, and just back in the winner's enclosure: there is plenty here to like.