Amavasya

The recent form figures tell a story of a horse that flickers occasionally but never quite gets there. That fourth-place finish a few runs back suggested something might be brewing, but it was followed by a fifth, then an eighth, and the most recent outing — just yesterday — brought a twelfth-place finish. Twelve out of twelve is about as far from the winner's enclosure as it gets. Over its last six races the trend is not encouraging, and across ten career races without a single place, Amavasya has a win rate of exactly zero.

To be fair to the yard, Grassick's team at the Curragh have sent out six winners this season, so the operation clearly knows how to get a horse ready to perform. Amavasya just hasn't been one of them yet. Whether that changes soon is the question — the horse is still only four and was out racing as recently as yesterday, so clearly the yard haven't given up. But until the form figures start showing some smaller numbers, it is hard to make much of a case for Amavasya beyond hoping that one day something just clicks.