Allibaba

The overall record — 2 wins and 5 places from 16 races — tells a modest story on the surface. That works out to winning roughly 1 in every 8 races across his career, which is not the kind of number that sets the world on fire. But numbers can be misleading, and the recent form tells a very different story. In the last six races, Allibaba has won twice, finished third once, and placed on another occasion. Two wins from six races is a 33% win rate — winning 1 in 3 — which is a dramatic step up from what came before. Something has changed.

Those wins came on normal ground, where he has now won 2 from 8 races — 1 in every 4. That is not a coincidence. He clearly moves better when the track is neither baked dry nor churned up, and any racegoer following him would do well to keep one eye on the weather forecast. His first win came at Market Rasen on 8 May 2026, and he backed it up just 12 days later at Warwick. Back-to-back wins for a horse who had never won before in his career is the kind of form that catches the eye.

One puzzle worth noting: Allibaba typically competes at Class 5, the lower end of the racing ladder, and has not yet managed a win at that level — 0 from 6. Both of his victories have come in different circumstances, which suggests he may be one of those horses who actually rises to a slightly different kind of challenge rather than thriving in the routine races he most often enters. His most frequent partner in the saddle, Thomas Dowson, is still looking for that first win together from five attempts, which is a quirk worth watching as the partnership develops.

What makes Allibaba worth following right now is simple: he is currently racing — he ran just yesterday — and he has discovered something in the last month that he never quite had before. Adrian Paul Keatley's yard has sent out 43 winners this season, so the team clearly knows what it is doing. Whether this late-career purple patch has more to give is the interesting question.