Al Riffa

The numbers back up that enthusiasm. Across his 11-race career, Al Riffa has won 4 times and finished in the places on 9 occasions — a win rate of 36%, which means he wins roughly 1 in every 3 races he enters. That is seriously consistent for a horse competing at a high level, and trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien's yard has been firing on all cylinders, sending out 160 winners this season from their base at Owning Hill in Co Kilkenny. At his best distance — seven furlongs to a mile — Al Riffa has won 2 of his 3 races, a remarkable 67% success rate that suggests the team know exactly where to place him.

His partnership with McMonagle is worth noting too. In 9 races together, they have won 4 times — winning roughly 4 in every 9 rides, or 44%. That is an unusually productive combination, and McMonagle clearly understands how this horse operates: patient in the early stages, dangerous when the race truly begins.

Not everything has gone perfectly. At Flemington, things did not fall his way — O'Brien was diplomatic afterwards, noting the weight, the race setup, and the lack of luck, but making clear that Al Riffa ran honestly throughout. "He'll have other days," the trainer said. That confidence appears well-founded. At six years old and with a recent run just a day ago, Al Riffa is an active, battle-hardened competitor. O'Brien has spoken about dropping him in grade to give him a live chance, and if history is any guide, point this horse back toward The Curragh and expect something interesting to happen.