The real story with Ad Caelum is course form. At Kilbeggan, he has won 2 of his 8 races there, a 25% win rate that stands out sharply against his overall record. His last victory came just two months ago, on 15 June, suggesting he is still very much capable at the track. Ground conditions matter too: on normal ground, he has managed 3 wins from 15 races, a 20% success rate that makes firm turf his preferred surface. When the track becomes heavy or waterlogged, his form tends to fade.
Sean O'Keeffe has partnered him most often, winning 2 of 10 races together—a promising 20% record that hints at a genuine understanding between horse and jockey. Trainer John Patrick Ryan, based at Templemore in County Tipperary, has built a productive yard this season with 21 winners overall, so the stable is in good form. Ad Caelum's recent record shows inconsistency: he ran poorly in two outings before finishing fifth and then winning, followed by a third place and a sixth-place finish just a day ago. That very recent run suggests he remains actively campaigned and is due a race, which means another opportunity to land the ground and the course he favours should come soon enough.
| Course | Races | Results | Last visited | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilbeggan Tight |
8 | 2 wins, 2 seconds, 4 other | 21 Aug | 25% |
| Clonmel Sharp |
6 | 1 second, 1 third, 4 other | 14 Apr | 0% |
| Thurles Undulating |
5 | 1 win, 2 thirds, 2 other | 18 Jan | 20% |
| Limerick Galloping |
5 | 1 win, 1 third, 3 other | 21 May | 20% |
| Ballinrobe Sharp |
4 | 1 win, 3 other | 12 Sep | 25% |
| Fairyhouse Galloping |
3 | 1 third, 2 other | 4 Apr | 0% |
| Cork Galloping |
2 | 2 other | 7 Dec | 0% |
| Galway Tight |
1 | 1 other | 1 Aug | 0% |
| Leopardstown Galloping |
1 | 1 other | 2 Feb | 0% |
| Listowel Sharp |
1 | 1 other | 28 Sep | 0% |
| Killarney Sharp |
1 | 1 other | 17 Jul | 0% |
| Sligo Sharp |
1 | 1 second | 1 Oct | 0% |
| Down Royal Galloping |
1 | 1 other | 4 May | 0% |