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Ad Caelum

Her 12% win rate — roughly 1 win in every 8 outings — is modest by any standard, yet there are genuine strengths buried in her record if you know where to look.Based on TrackLab's analysis
Quick facts
Age
7 years old
Sex
Mare
Colour
Bay
Father
Cloudings
Mother
Ad Meliora
Owner
John Patrick Ryan
Official rating
102

📊 Key numbers

Career totals for this horse
41
Career races
5
Wins
12.2%
Win rate
avg ~10%
34.1%
Top-3 rate
avg ~30%
37 days
Since last race

🔍 Full analysis

Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
TrackLab's detailed breakdown

The standout detail is her record at Kilbeggan, where she has won twice in eight races, a 25% win rate that marks it as genuinely her course. Her most recent victory came there on 15 June over four months ago, suggesting that when the ground, the race, and the track all align, Ad Caelum is capable of delivering. She also shows a marked preference for normal ground conditions, winning 3 of 15 races on it, compared to a much poorer record elsewhere. This is useful intelligence: Ad Caelum is a horse worth following at Kilbeggan when conditions are standard and he has Sean O'Keeffe in the saddle. With that jockey, she has won twice from 10 rides, a 20% win rate that is twice her overall average and suggests a real partnership.

Trained by John Patrick Ryan's yard at Templemore in Tipperary, which has sent out 21 winners this season, Ad Caelum remains an active racer — he last ran just a day ago. Her first career win came at Thurles on 29 November 2024. Nothing in her form suggests she will suddenly become a star, but for punters or racing fans who like a horse with a clear pattern and a course where she can perform, Ad Caelum offers genuine value. She is exactly the kind of mid-range racer who makes racing interesting: reliable enough to be worth watching on the right day, talented enough to win when everything lines up, but honest enough never to waste your time.

⚡ Strengths and risks

What helps this horse and what to watch out for
✓ What works in their favour
✔ Excellent record on good ground: 3 wins from 15 starts (20%)
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on soft ground: 0 wins from 5 starts
⚠ Poor record on yielding ground: 0 wins from 4 starts
⚠ Yet to win at Clonmel in 6 attempts

🎯 Where this horse runs best

Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Good (a little give)
Loves
Good to yielding (mild give)
Yielding to soft (damp)
Soft to heavy (wet)
Unknown
Soft (muddy)
Avoids
Yielding (slightly soft)
Avoids
📏 Race distance
Long Distance (2M+)
🏟 Track shape
Right-handed, tight
Loves
Right-handed, hilly
Loves
Right-handed, tight turns
Ok
Right-handed, long straights
Ok
Left-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Left-handed, long straights
Unknown

📅 Recent runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
28 Sep
DNF
Roscommon
Long Distance (2m+) · Yielding · 10 runners
11 Sep
5th
Ballinrobe
Long Distance (2m+) · Yielding · 9 runners
21 Aug
DNF
Kilbeggan
Long Distance (2m+) · Good_To_Yielding · 9 runners
1 Aug
DNF
Galway
Long Distance (2m+) · Good_To_Yielding · 22 runners
10 Jul
5th
Kilbeggan
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 18 runners
15 Jun
🏆 Won
Kilbeggan
Long Distance (2m+) · Good_To_Yielding · 14 runners
21 May
3rd
Limerick
Long Distance (2m+) · Good_To_Yielding · 9 runners
15 May
6th
Kilbeggan
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 9 runners
4 May
7th
Down Royal
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 9 runners
14 Apr
6th
Clonmel
Long Distance (2m+) · Yielding_To_Soft · 7 runners

🏇 Jockeys

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
20%
Win rate
2/10
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/7
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/4
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/3
Wins / rides
Mr D McGill
50%
Win rate
1/2
Wins / rides
Michael Kenneally
0%
Win rate
0/2
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/2
Wins / rides
Mr D Doyle
100%
Win rate
1/1
Wins / rides
Philip Donovan
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
Liam McKenna(5)
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides

🏟 Course record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast runWin rate
Kilbeggan
Tight
8 2 wins, 2 seconds, 4 other 21 Aug 25%
Clonmel
Sharp
6 1 second, 1 third, 4 other 14 Apr 0%
Ballinrobe
Sharp
5 1 win, 4 other 11 Sep 20%
Thurles
Undulating
5 1 win, 2 thirds, 2 other 18 Jan 20%
Limerick
Galloping
5 1 win, 1 third, 3 other 21 May 20%
Fairyhouse
Galloping
3 1 third, 2 other 4 Apr 0%
Cork
Galloping
2 2 other 7 Dec 0%
Killarney
Sharp
1 1 other 17 Jul 0%
Sligo
Sharp
1 1 second 1 Oct 0%
Galway
Tight
1 1 other 1 Aug 0%
Leopardstown
Galloping
1 1 other 2 Feb 0%
Down Royal
Galloping
1 1 other 4 May 0%
Roscommon
Sharp
1 1 other 28 Sep 0%
Listowel
Sharp
1 1 other 28 Sep 0%